Nevada had four congressional races. Two were competitive and two were pretty easy skates for candidates where their party affiliation dominates their district.
District 1) CD1 is a district dominated be democratic voters and former state legislator & former congresswoman (held CD3 for one term 2008-10) Dina Titus (D) cruised to an easy victory in a seat that should be a gimme for democrats in the coming years.
Titus won in a rout more than doubling up on opponent Chris Edwards 113,377 to 56,357. This race was never really in question and there was little news coming from this race. It's good to have an excellent representative like Dina Titus going back to DC and repping for her district and Nevada!
District 2) This district in most years should lean republican. It has a good portion of GOP voting rural Nevada and covers the northern urban areas of Reno, Sparks, Carson City, Lake Tahoe and Douglas County.
This was the other gimme race, where incumbent Mark Amodei had little trouble winning 161,915 - 101,594 over an absolute unknown (D) in Sam Koepnick. The only interesting aspect to this races was that Koepnick never accepted any democratic assistance at all. In fact some northern democrats wondered if he was a "planted" candidate who got past a more established democrat in the primary. Once the race started Koepnick was little seen and basically garnered what votes he did get on his supposed democratic party affiliation on the ballot.
The thing to look at here is the final vote numbers: Even though Koepnick was virtually invisible, spent no money, took few if any donations and had almost no advertising, he still managed to garner over 100k votes. I think northern Nevada democrats could look at this result and think that if there was a legitimate viable name recognized candidate, that this district could be won by a democrat.
The key here is the primary. Do not let a repeat of the 2012 primary happen where an unknown entity knocks out a real viable candidate.
District 3) CD3 lies totally within the boundary of Clark County encompassing the southern half of the county, down to Laughlin. This is the quintessential swing district as the voter roles are almost evenly split. This is also a suburban Las Vegas area district, with middle to upper class neighborhoods.
The race matched incumbent Joe Heck (R) (who beat Dina Titus in 2008) vs long time state legislator John Oceguera. This race was another that was (and always should be) tightly contested. Heck came out the winner 136,905 to 116, 385, with two IAP candidates siphoning off 18,367 votes, but not enough to say they factored in the outcome of this race.
This race was one of the two (CD4 being the other) that really got the advertising and mailers going. As this is a swing district targeted by both parties, there was local money and a lot of out of state money in this race, with each camp hammering the other. In the end incumbency might have been a bit much to overcome in a centrist district, where there were a good number of Romney signs in certain neighborhoods.
This district should always be a good fight for whoever wants to take the plunge.
District 4) This is the new district in Nevada, added after redistricting in 2011. This is a lean democratic seat voter registration wise, but it is also the most interesting seat because it encompasses the northern half of Clark County (Las Vegas metro area) and the other half of rural Nevada that CD2 doesn't cover.
This race featured state senator Steven Horsford (D) vs Danny Tarkanian (R). Horsford was behind in polling, but when the voters actually cast ballots, Horsford wound up with a surprising margin of victory (120,096 to 101,136, with two minor party candidates combining for 18,684 votes).
This is the race where pollsters erred the most. I think the Obama coat tails helped dramatically in this race, when African Americans showed up to vote in greater numbers than probably expected and that turn out helped Horsford win.
The rural counties all went republican by good percentages (68.9% to 30.7%) but the rural numbers were small enough that a good result in Clark County carried the day. Consider that Tarkanian won the rurals by 9,901 votes and Horsford won the urban area by 28,861 votes. Horsford will be making his first trip to DC as congressman!!
Rural Nevada is and probably always will be the domain of republican votes, but fortunately Clark County is trending democratic with Washoe County becoming a true battle ground.
Friday, November 9, 2012
2012 Election thoughts - Nevada Senate Edition
The 2012 Nevada Senate race thoughts:
In the senatorial race between appointed incumbent Dean Heller (R) and challenger, current congresswoman Shelley Berkely (D) came down to the late results from Washoe County (Reno-Sparks area). Early in the evening as numbers came in, Berkely had a nice lead with Clark County (Las Vegas metro area) going to Berkely, but as the evening moved along the voted came in from Washoe County, which has been more Heller territory and it proved to be the difference in this race.
Final numbers: Heller 456,640 Berkely 444,513
The weird thing in this race was that the 3rd party candidate (IAP David Vanderbeek) (48,588), along with Nevada ballot oddity "None of these candidates" (44,907) took enough votes (93,495 total) that had those votes been spread to the two main candidates the outcome might have been different since the margin between Heller and Berkely was only 12,127.
To show how much Clark County can dominate Nevada politics, Berkely lost by only 12,127, yet won only one (Clark County) of Nevada's 17 total counties. It also seemed that Obama coat tails didn't come through for Berkely like she needed, as enough Obama voters crossed over and voted Heller, especially in Washoe County.
Part of this cross over vote could stem from the north south rivalry/split/fear that exists in northern Nevada. Historically the Reno area & Washoe, Carson, Storey, Douglas, Churchill & Lyon counties were the population center in Nevada and they held all the cards economically & politically. Since the 1950's the southern end of Nevada began a population boom and Clark County, with Las Vegas, North Las Vegas & Henderson began a growth spurt that would make it the main population center.
Now in 2012, Clark County holds 70+% of Nevada's population and redistricting has shifted more seats to southern Nevada away from northern and rural Nevada. This political shift should mean more power for southern Nevada in state politics. But this could also be the reason we saw Washoe County voters cross over and support Obama and Heller, as Heller is a northern Nevada guy and it's very possible they wanted one of their own in DC, rather than have two southern Nevada based senators (Harry Reid is from Searchlight/Boulder City/Henderson). And with the recent political power shift, knocking off a northerner might have been too much to risk, as if Heller had lost, when might another northern Nevada candidate hold that senate seat?
In the senatorial race between appointed incumbent Dean Heller (R) and challenger, current congresswoman Shelley Berkely (D) came down to the late results from Washoe County (Reno-Sparks area). Early in the evening as numbers came in, Berkely had a nice lead with Clark County (Las Vegas metro area) going to Berkely, but as the evening moved along the voted came in from Washoe County, which has been more Heller territory and it proved to be the difference in this race.
Final numbers: Heller 456,640 Berkely 444,513
The weird thing in this race was that the 3rd party candidate (IAP David Vanderbeek) (48,588), along with Nevada ballot oddity "None of these candidates" (44,907) took enough votes (93,495 total) that had those votes been spread to the two main candidates the outcome might have been different since the margin between Heller and Berkely was only 12,127.
To show how much Clark County can dominate Nevada politics, Berkely lost by only 12,127, yet won only one (Clark County) of Nevada's 17 total counties. It also seemed that Obama coat tails didn't come through for Berkely like she needed, as enough Obama voters crossed over and voted Heller, especially in Washoe County.
Part of this cross over vote could stem from the north south rivalry/split/fear that exists in northern Nevada. Historically the Reno area & Washoe, Carson, Storey, Douglas, Churchill & Lyon counties were the population center in Nevada and they held all the cards economically & politically. Since the 1950's the southern end of Nevada began a population boom and Clark County, with Las Vegas, North Las Vegas & Henderson began a growth spurt that would make it the main population center.
Now in 2012, Clark County holds 70+% of Nevada's population and redistricting has shifted more seats to southern Nevada away from northern and rural Nevada. This political shift should mean more power for southern Nevada in state politics. But this could also be the reason we saw Washoe County voters cross over and support Obama and Heller, as Heller is a northern Nevada guy and it's very possible they wanted one of their own in DC, rather than have two southern Nevada based senators (Harry Reid is from Searchlight/Boulder City/Henderson). And with the recent political power shift, knocking off a northerner might have been too much to risk, as if Heller had lost, when might another northern Nevada candidate hold that senate seat?
Post Election thoughts - presidential edition
Election 2012 is in the books!
Democrats came out faring pretty well over all!
In the presidential race, Obama bested Romney fairly easily 332 (I'm giving Obama the 29 Florida electoral votes since Obama has the lead) to 206. Obama won 27 states to Romney's 23 states, and Obama won the overall popular vote 61,217,568 vs 58,205,105 a 51% - 48% split. (these vote total still subject to change, as not all votes are in yet).
In winning the popular vote, it eliminates the republicans from claiming that Romney, and his polices were more popular and the Obama victory was just a matter of electoral vote totals. Had Obama lost the popular vote it would have been more ammunition for the GOP to continue their recent strategy of obstruction to any type of action President Obama wanted to pursue, as the GOP would make the argument that the majority of voters rejected Obama in favor of Romney.
This win by President Obama totally caught the republicans off guard. My thinking was that the GOP was counting on the much ballyhooed and publicized angst surrounding health care reform and other Obama policies, that Fox News and tea party types opposed with such vocal vigor.
With the noise inside the "conservative bubble" of right wing radio (Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Levin, etc etc.) and the 24 hour propaganda of Fox News, I really think conservatives were blinded in a bubble of their own making and never really looked outside the 365 24/7 static that conservatives listen to. They mistakenly thought that the entire country agreed with their warped thinking, and that there was no way that Obama could win when it came time to cast ballots across the country.
Now the GOP is left to search through the debris of their own political hurricane that was the 2012 election!
Good job to all involved in making a second term for President Obama a reality!!!
Democrats came out faring pretty well over all!
In the presidential race, Obama bested Romney fairly easily 332 (I'm giving Obama the 29 Florida electoral votes since Obama has the lead) to 206. Obama won 27 states to Romney's 23 states, and Obama won the overall popular vote 61,217,568 vs 58,205,105 a 51% - 48% split. (these vote total still subject to change, as not all votes are in yet).
In winning the popular vote, it eliminates the republicans from claiming that Romney, and his polices were more popular and the Obama victory was just a matter of electoral vote totals. Had Obama lost the popular vote it would have been more ammunition for the GOP to continue their recent strategy of obstruction to any type of action President Obama wanted to pursue, as the GOP would make the argument that the majority of voters rejected Obama in favor of Romney.
This win by President Obama totally caught the republicans off guard. My thinking was that the GOP was counting on the much ballyhooed and publicized angst surrounding health care reform and other Obama policies, that Fox News and tea party types opposed with such vocal vigor.
With the noise inside the "conservative bubble" of right wing radio (Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Levin, etc etc.) and the 24 hour propaganda of Fox News, I really think conservatives were blinded in a bubble of their own making and never really looked outside the 365 24/7 static that conservatives listen to. They mistakenly thought that the entire country agreed with their warped thinking, and that there was no way that Obama could win when it came time to cast ballots across the country.
Now the GOP is left to search through the debris of their own political hurricane that was the 2012 election!
Good job to all involved in making a second term for President Obama a reality!!!
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Another GOP candidate makes idiotic comment
Seems there is no limit or end to the continuing flow of idiocy and ignorance from republicans and republican candidates over the last few years. As the tea party candidates take hold of what were normal republican offices, or win over normal GOP candidates in primaries, the propensity for asinine, stupid, ignorant and outlandish comments rises.
Usually we have GOP stalwarts Michelle Bachmann (R MN), Louie Gohmert (R TX), Virginia Foxx (R NC) and Alan West (R FL) making the idiotic comments, but not this time!
Yesterday Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock chimed in with a doozy of a comment during a Indiana senate debate. Mourdock said: ""I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize life is a gift from God, and I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen"".
Of course this follows Missouri senate candidate Tod Akins dumb ass comments a month ago.
These types of comments keep coming from GOP candidates and politicians, so this isn't an isolated incident of one person misspeaking or being quoted out of context. These are a monthly to weekly occurrence and that leads me to think it exposes a deeper ideology that permeates republican thinking.
Mourdock defeated longtime Indiana senator Richard Lugar in the primary. This isn't the first time a "tea party" backed candidate has won over established mainline republicans, leaving the GOP in a difficult situation where the choice is to vote for a certifiable loon or to support the democrat.
Unfortunately in many house races, where the district is smaller and more polarized to lean GOP, the loony candidate ends up the winner, well because the republicans who make up the majority of those districts would rather send a straight-jacket ready idiot to congress over a democrat.
As long as these type of morons and loons get put into office by republican leaning districts, you can kiss any bi-partisan chances of getting bills passed, because these loons are not going to work with anyone not mirroring their ideology of lunacy.
Usually we have GOP stalwarts Michelle Bachmann (R MN), Louie Gohmert (R TX), Virginia Foxx (R NC) and Alan West (R FL) making the idiotic comments, but not this time!
Yesterday Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock chimed in with a doozy of a comment during a Indiana senate debate. Mourdock said: ""I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize life is a gift from God, and I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen"".
Of course this follows Missouri senate candidate Tod Akins dumb ass comments a month ago.
These types of comments keep coming from GOP candidates and politicians, so this isn't an isolated incident of one person misspeaking or being quoted out of context. These are a monthly to weekly occurrence and that leads me to think it exposes a deeper ideology that permeates republican thinking.
Mourdock defeated longtime Indiana senator Richard Lugar in the primary. This isn't the first time a "tea party" backed candidate has won over established mainline republicans, leaving the GOP in a difficult situation where the choice is to vote for a certifiable loon or to support the democrat.
Unfortunately in many house races, where the district is smaller and more polarized to lean GOP, the loony candidate ends up the winner, well because the republicans who make up the majority of those districts would rather send a straight-jacket ready idiot to congress over a democrat.
As long as these type of morons and loons get put into office by republican leaning districts, you can kiss any bi-partisan chances of getting bills passed, because these loons are not going to work with anyone not mirroring their ideology of lunacy.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Nevada voting numbers
Anyone can look up these numbers here: http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=1195 Which is a link to the Nevada Secretary of State site.
But since I was taking a peek at the numbers, I figured I would do a post showing the numbers through 3 days of early voting in Nevada!
The 3 days are: Saturday, October 20; Sunday October 21; Monday, October 22.
Total votes cast:
Clark County 10/20) 33,204 10/21) 25,999 10/22) 30,598 Total 80,801
Washoe County 10/20) 9,638 10/21) 4,837 10/22) 6,773 Total 21,248
Statewide 10/20) 49,980 10/21) 31,324 10/22) 44,008 Total 125,312
Clark County has accounted for 64.5% of the state total.
Vote by party affiliation:
Clark County
Democrat: 46,416 GOP: 28,321 Other:15,064
Washoe County
Democrat: 9,700 GOP: 8,314 Other: 3,234
Statewide:
Democrat: 60,389 GOP: 44,343 Other: 20,580
Statewide Democrats have cast 48.2% of total votes cast, GOP have 35.4% and Others have 16.4%
Absentee ballots returned:
Clark County: Dems 10,456 GOP 8,877 Other 3,524
Washoe County: Dems 2,905 GOP 2,967 Other 1,177
Statewide: Dems 15,525 GOP 15,460 Other 5,801
So far so good for the Democrats getting the vote out and getting to the polls!
Of course not every Democrat voter will vote for Obama and not every GOP will vote for Romney, but if you want to take a good thing away from these numbers (at this moment) it's that the total number of Democrats voting is only 4,534 behind the combined total of GOP and Other votes..........which means if a good percentage of Other votes go to Obama then (so far), Obama looks good for carrying Nevada!
Let's play pure politics with these numbers!
Let's say every Dem vote went to Obama and that all GOP votes went to Romney, then that 4,534 difference between the total of Dems and GOP/Other means if 22% of Other voters choose Obama the race is tied 50-50...........which means Obama can win Nevada if he probably gets 35% of the "Other" vote to go to Obama or to another candidate besides Romney.
Stay tuned and stay on course, two weeks to go, and every vote will count in Nevada, it could be THAT CLOSE!!
But since I was taking a peek at the numbers, I figured I would do a post showing the numbers through 3 days of early voting in Nevada!
The 3 days are: Saturday, October 20; Sunday October 21; Monday, October 22.
Total votes cast:
Clark County 10/20) 33,204 10/21) 25,999 10/22) 30,598 Total 80,801
Washoe County 10/20) 9,638 10/21) 4,837 10/22) 6,773 Total 21,248
Statewide 10/20) 49,980 10/21) 31,324 10/22) 44,008 Total 125,312
Clark County has accounted for 64.5% of the state total.
Vote by party affiliation:
Clark County
Democrat: 46,416 GOP: 28,321 Other:15,064
Washoe County
Democrat: 9,700 GOP: 8,314 Other: 3,234
Statewide:
Democrat: 60,389 GOP: 44,343 Other: 20,580
Statewide Democrats have cast 48.2% of total votes cast, GOP have 35.4% and Others have 16.4%
Absentee ballots returned:
Clark County: Dems 10,456 GOP 8,877 Other 3,524
Washoe County: Dems 2,905 GOP 2,967 Other 1,177
Statewide: Dems 15,525 GOP 15,460 Other 5,801
So far so good for the Democrats getting the vote out and getting to the polls!
Of course not every Democrat voter will vote for Obama and not every GOP will vote for Romney, but if you want to take a good thing away from these numbers (at this moment) it's that the total number of Democrats voting is only 4,534 behind the combined total of GOP and Other votes..........which means if a good percentage of Other votes go to Obama then (so far), Obama looks good for carrying Nevada!
Let's play pure politics with these numbers!
Let's say every Dem vote went to Obama and that all GOP votes went to Romney, then that 4,534 difference between the total of Dems and GOP/Other means if 22% of Other voters choose Obama the race is tied 50-50...........which means Obama can win Nevada if he probably gets 35% of the "Other" vote to go to Obama or to another candidate besides Romney.
Stay tuned and stay on course, two weeks to go, and every vote will count in Nevada, it could be THAT CLOSE!!
The final debate !
Well folks, the last debate is over and done with and from everything I can find, President Obama came out ahead in every poll & focus group (that wasn't stacked or fixed!)!!
I personally don't think Obama winning the the last two debates will have a huge impact on the polls, maybe a small percent or two bump at best. The country seems pretty set on who they will vote for and the "undecideds" are a small percentage of the electorate this year.
Obama was clearly more effective in this debate and, honestly, foreign policy is not a strong area for Romney, unless it's international banking. Romney appeared to be playing it safe, not saying too much, and trying hard to avoid any really gaffs or outlandish (for Romney's standards) comments. One big surprise was how much Romney agreed with Obama on various issues, and the right wing punditry noticed also, wondering why Romney wasn't more aggressive and attacking like in the previous two debates. Again I think the calmer Romney was his camps strategy to play it down the middle and not fumble the ball.
Obama was clearly more aggressive in the last two debates, and I can't help but wonder if the current poll margins might be a little wider in Obama's favor had he come out in the first debate like he did in the last two debates. From what I gathered, the first debate was the most watched of the three, and I can't say Obama won undecideds over with the "first impression" factor of the first debate.
I, for one, am glad the debate season is behind us. I still think while Obama has done good things with the economy, it's still a sore subject with the "casual" voter, who might not know or realize the extent of Republican obstruction and therefore unknowingly put the full blame on Obama for the slow recovery.
So with 14 days (as of this writing), it now comes down to the turn out. There is enough "Obama hate" out there that no Democrat or Obama supporter should take this election lightly or think they don't need to vote. Democrats have to turn out in big numbers, especially in the 7 or 8 "swing" states that will decide this election.
So far, here in Nevada, the democrats have been heading to the polls in very good numbers since early voting opened on October 20th !!!
Get out and vote, regardless of your location, and make your voice heard!!!
I personally don't think Obama winning the the last two debates will have a huge impact on the polls, maybe a small percent or two bump at best. The country seems pretty set on who they will vote for and the "undecideds" are a small percentage of the electorate this year.
Obama was clearly more effective in this debate and, honestly, foreign policy is not a strong area for Romney, unless it's international banking. Romney appeared to be playing it safe, not saying too much, and trying hard to avoid any really gaffs or outlandish (for Romney's standards) comments. One big surprise was how much Romney agreed with Obama on various issues, and the right wing punditry noticed also, wondering why Romney wasn't more aggressive and attacking like in the previous two debates. Again I think the calmer Romney was his camps strategy to play it down the middle and not fumble the ball.
Obama was clearly more aggressive in the last two debates, and I can't help but wonder if the current poll margins might be a little wider in Obama's favor had he come out in the first debate like he did in the last two debates. From what I gathered, the first debate was the most watched of the three, and I can't say Obama won undecideds over with the "first impression" factor of the first debate.
I, for one, am glad the debate season is behind us. I still think while Obama has done good things with the economy, it's still a sore subject with the "casual" voter, who might not know or realize the extent of Republican obstruction and therefore unknowingly put the full blame on Obama for the slow recovery.
So with 14 days (as of this writing), it now comes down to the turn out. There is enough "Obama hate" out there that no Democrat or Obama supporter should take this election lightly or think they don't need to vote. Democrats have to turn out in big numbers, especially in the 7 or 8 "swing" states that will decide this election.
So far, here in Nevada, the democrats have been heading to the polls in very good numbers since early voting opened on October 20th !!!
Get out and vote, regardless of your location, and make your voice heard!!!
Friday, October 19, 2012
Romney spurned by his own!?!?
Seems Mitt Romney is not having much success picking up votes or endorsements from area's one might think Romney would be well received!?!?
In Massachusetts, where Romney served as governor, Romney is losing big in various polls.
Snap shot of October poll numbers show Obama running away in Romney's "home state" of Massachusetts.
Western NE University poll: Obama +30%
WBUR/MassINC poll: Obama +16
Public Policy Polling: Obama +14
Rasmussen Reports: Obama +15
So what does it say about a candidate (Romney) that's the very state where he served as governor is rejecting him by such large decisive margins?!?!
These Massachusetts pools have been in Obama's favor throughout the campaign, and we know Massachusetts general leans democratic, but still getting beat by such margins has to say something about Romney.
Now Today, Friday October 19, 2012, we get this shocker from the Salt Lake Tribune:
Obama has earned another term
In Massachusetts, where Romney served as governor, Romney is losing big in various polls.
Snap shot of October poll numbers show Obama running away in Romney's "home state" of Massachusetts.
Western NE University poll: Obama +30%
WBUR/MassINC poll: Obama +16
Public Policy Polling: Obama +14
Rasmussen Reports: Obama +15
So what does it say about a candidate (Romney) that's the very state where he served as governor is rejecting him by such large decisive margins?!?!
These Massachusetts pools have been in Obama's favor throughout the campaign, and we know Massachusetts general leans democratic, but still getting beat by such margins has to say something about Romney.
Now Today, Friday October 19, 2012, we get this shocker from the Salt Lake Tribune:
Obama has earned another term
In considering which candidate to endorse, The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board had hoped that Romney would exhibit the same talents for organization, pragmatic problem-solving and inspired leadership that he displayed here more than a decade ago. Instead, we have watched him morph into a friend of the far right, then tack toward the center with breathtaking aplomb. Through a pair of presidential debates, Romney’s domestic agenda remains bereft of detail and worthy of mistrust.
Therefore, our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that, while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. The president has earned a second term. Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first.
For full text of the endorsement:
Very telling that the Salt Lake Tribune, a major paper in the major city/market in the state of Utah would endorse Obama over Romney.
This is no small slight.
1) Mitt Romney is LDS (Mormon). Salt Lake City is the headquarters of the LDS Church.
2) Salt Lake City hosted the winter Olympics in 2002. Mitt Romney was called in to supposedly "rescue the Salt Lake Olympics.
Fist off, don't think for once second that the state of Utah won't go for Romney by large margins in this election, but this endorsement from one of the major newspapers in what is LDS central is quite stunning.
It's a major coup for an LDS politician to get to this point in a presidential race and 99.99% would think that every entity that is associated with LDS leanings would stand in support of Romney's run. It's not like an LDS candidate gets this close very often, so one would think that all the available tools would be put to use in Romney's favor.
And Romney is seen and noted as the saviour of the 2002 Winter Olympics. Saving the state and region from possible world wide embarrassment should the Olympics have bombed.
This Obama endorsement basically calls out Romney for his multiple stances on various issues and his complete lack of specifics on his tax plan deductions and medicare policy.
I have to give the Salt Lake Tribune major credit for calling out Romney for what he has become: A multiple stance flip-flopper, who will basically say anything to get elected and offers no specifics on what he would do if he gets elected.
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